source("../dsan-globals/_globals.r")Week 11: Fear and Loathing on the Pareto Frontier
DSAN 5450: Data Ethics and Policy
Spring 2026, Georgetown University
Schedule
| Start | End | Topic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecture | 3:30pm | 4:00pm | A Whirlwind Tour of Prisoners’ Dilemmas |
| 4:00pm | 4:50pm | Policy Interventions: Transforming Prisoners’ Dilemmas into Assurance/Invisible Hand Games | |
| Break! | 5:00pm | 5:10pm | |
| 5:10pm | 6:00pm | “Inverse Fairness”(!): Machine-Learning What Policies Value |
Where We Left Off…
Prisoners’ Dilemma feels like a silly math/econ problem at first… then you get brainwashed by pol econ PhD and suddenly see it at the “core” of 95% of global issues
\[ \DeclareMathOperator*{\argmax}{argmax} \DeclareMathOperator*{\argmin}{argmin} \newcommand{\bigexp}[1]{\exp\mkern-4mu\left[ #1 \right]} \newcommand{\bigexpect}[1]{\mathbb{E}\mkern-4mu \left[ #1 \right]} \newcommand{\definedas}{\overset{\small\text{def}}{=}} \newcommand{\definedalign}{\overset{\phantom{\text{defn}}}{=}} \newcommand{\eqeventual}{\overset{\text{eventually}}{=}} \newcommand{\Err}{\text{Err}} \newcommand{\expect}[1]{\mathbb{E}[#1]} \newcommand{\expectsq}[1]{\mathbb{E}^2[#1]} \newcommand{\fw}[1]{\texttt{#1}} \newcommand{\given}{\mid} \newcommand{\green}[1]{\color{green}{#1}} \newcommand{\heads}{\outcome{heads}} \newcommand{\iid}{\overset{\text{\small{iid}}}{\sim}} \newcommand{\lik}{\mathcal{L}} \newcommand{\loglik}{\ell} \DeclareMathOperator*{\maximize}{maximize} \DeclareMathOperator*{\minimize}{minimize} \newcommand{\mle}{\textsf{ML}} \newcommand{\nimplies}{\;\not\!\!\!\!\implies} \newcommand{\orange}[1]{\color{orange}{#1}} \newcommand{\outcome}[1]{\textsf{#1}} \newcommand{\param}[1]{{\color{purple} #1}} \newcommand{\pgsamplespace}{\{\green{1},\green{2},\green{3},\purp{4},\purp{5},\purp{6}\}} \newcommand{\pedge}[2]{\require{enclose}\enclose{circle}{~{#1}~} \rightarrow \; \enclose{circle}{\kern.01em {#2}~\kern.01em}} \newcommand{\pnode}[1]{\require{enclose}\enclose{circle}{\kern.1em {#1} \kern.1em}} \newcommand{\ponode}[1]{\require{enclose}\enclose{box}[background=lightgray]{{#1}}} \newcommand{\pnodesp}[1]{\require{enclose}\enclose{circle}{~{#1}~}} \newcommand{\purp}[1]{\color{purple}{#1}} \newcommand{\sign}{\text{Sign}} \newcommand{\spacecap}{\; \cap \;} \newcommand{\spacewedge}{\; \wedge \;} \newcommand{\tails}{\outcome{tails}} \newcommand{\Var}[1]{\text{Var}[#1]} \newcommand{\bigVar}[1]{\text{Var}\mkern-4mu \left[ #1 \right]} \]

Fishers’ Dilemma (Our “Core” Prisoners’ Dilemma)
Single, unique Nash equilibrium, and it’s Pareto inferior
(looming in background: unsustainable if total hours/day > 14)
The “Iterated Elimination” Result
| \(\color{#e69f00}B\) | ||||||
| Fish 6h | Fish 8h | |||||
| \(\color{#0072b2}A\) | Fish 6h | \(\color{#0072b2}\cancel{1}\color{black}, \,\) | \(\color{#e69f00}\cancel{1}\) | \(\color{#0072b2}\cancel{0}\color{black},\) | \(\color{#e69f00}\boxed{\mathbf{1.2}}\) | |
| Fish 8h | \(\color{#0072b2}\boxed{\color{#0072b2}\mathbf{1.2}}\color{black}, \,\) | \(\color{#e69f00}\cancel{0}\) | \(\color{#0072b2}\boxed{\color{#0072b2}\mathbf{0.4}}\color{black},\) | \(\color{#009e73}\boxed{\color{#e69f00}\mathbf{0.4}}\) | ||
Boxes = Best Responses:
\[ \begin{aligned} {\color{#0072b2}\text{BR}_A}({\color{#e69f00}\overset{B}{6\textrm{h}}}) &= {\color{#0072b2}8\textrm{h}}, \; {\color{#0072b2}\text{BR}_A}({\color{#e69f00}\overset{B}{8\textrm{h}}}) = {\color{#0072b2}8\textrm{h}} \\ {\color{#e69f00}\text{BR}_B}( {\color{#0072b2}\underset{A}{6\textrm{h}}} ) &= {\color{#e69f00}8\textrm{h}}, \; {\color{#e69f00}\text{BR}_B}( {\color{#0072b2}\underset{A}{8\textrm{h}}} ) = {\color{#e69f00}8\textrm{h}} \end{aligned} \]
Best response is always \(\text{8h}\), no matter what other player does!
\[ \begin{aligned} \implies &{\color{#0072b2}\mathbb{E}[u_A]} = {\color{#e69f00}\mathbb{E}[u_B]} = 0.4 \text{ for now}, \\ &\leadsto \; ? \text{ once fishery collapses (}\textstyle\sum\text{hrs} = 16\text{)} \end{aligned} \]
Pareto Dominance
Policy Intervention : Allow Contracts
\(\leadsto\) Operationalizing Power as “second best” outside option(s)
- Equally good outside options \(\implies\) can contract to Pareto-optimal point \(o^P\)
- \(B\) has better outside options \(\implies\) can make take it or leave it offer to \(A\):
- “You (\(A\)) fish 6 hrs all the time. I (\(B\)) fish 6 hrs 41% of time, 8 hrs otherwise”
Slightly better for \(A\) \(\implies\) \(A\) accepts:
\[ \begin{aligned} \mathbb{E}[u_A(a_A = \textsf{Reject})] &= \overset{\text{STTP}}{\boxed{0.4}} \; \text{ (prev slide) } \overset{\text{LTTP}}{\color{#e69f00}\boxed{\color{black}\leadsto -\infty}} \\ \mathbb{E}[u_A(a_A = \textsf{Accept})] &= 0.41\cdot 1 + 0.59 \cdot 0 = \boxed{0.41} \\ \mathbb{E}[u_B(a_A = \textsf{Reject})] &= \boxed{0.4} \; \text{ (prev slide) } {\color{#e69f00}\boxed{\color{black}\leadsto 0.39}} \\ \mathbb{E}[u_B(a_A = \textsf{Accept})] &= 0.41\cdot 1 + 0.59 \cdot 1.2 = \boxed{1.118} \end{aligned} \]
\(B\)’s offer = credible threat in both short and long term; same threat from \(A\) would not be credible (\(B\) knows \(A\) would eventually die: \(u_A \leadsto -\infty\))
HW4: observe policy outcome \(o^{\text{TIOLI}}_{B \rightarrow A}\) \(\Leftrightarrow\) social welfare weights \(\omega_B > \omega_A\)
Policy Intervention : Fines for Overfishing
\(\leadsto\) Weber’s descriptive definition of “The State”: Agent with Monopoly on Legal Use of Force (Weber 1919) (remember him?)
- Notice: Previous “intervention” was actually self-enforcing! However, outcome was…
- Determined entirely by asymmetric power, and
- Took no account of anyone in society besides two fishers!
- (Thought experiment: if both had “good” outside options, best for them could be fish cod to extinction then move on to “second-best” option \(u = 0.4 \leadsto 0.39\))
- If we identify [asymmetry of power \(\leadsto\) asymmetry of outcomes] as harm bc unfair (reflective equilibrium), one “follow-up” policy intervention is make \(A\)’s outside options better (welfare, job retraining, etc… but who sets these up?)
- If we identify [ecological damage] as harm, this forms independent “dimension” of policy analysis: if coastal waters are “public good” of Canada, may need some sort of agent representing Canada, to govern use of resource 🤔 some sort of… representative government 🤔 with power to issue fines / ban fishing 🤔
…Fines are “Easy” from Economic Perspective
An economic transaction is a solved political problem. Economics has gained the title “Queen of the Social Sciences” by choosing solved political problems as its domain. (Lerner 1972)
- If we assume a “well-functioning” state—power to enforce fines, no corruption, etc.—and that this state has “agreed” to use fines to resolve the issue…
- Calculation of “optimal fines” is a “solved” problem in economics (like encryption in CS): A Pigouvian tax just fines agent \(B\) an amount equal to the externality(!) their defection imposes on \(A\), then redistributes this collected fine back to \(A\):
| \(\color{#e69f00}B\) | ||||||
| Fish 6h | Fish 8h | |||||
| \(\color{#0072b2}A\) | Fish 6h | \(\color{#0072b2}\cancel{1}\color{black}, \,\) | \(\color{#e69f00}\cancel{1}\) | \(\underset{(+1)}{\color{#0072b2}\cancel{0}\color{black}}\underset{\; \leftarrow\vphantom{(+1)}}{,}\) | \(\underset{(-1)}{\color{#e69f00}\boxed{\color{#e69f00}\mathbf{1.2}}}\) | |
| Fish 8h | \(\underset{(-1)}{\color{#0072b2}\boxed{\color{#0072b2}\mathbf{1.2}}}\color{black}\underset{\rightarrow\vphantom{(+1)}}{,} \,\) | \(\underset{(+1)}{\color{#e69f00}\cancel{0}}\) | \(\color{#0072b2}\boxed{\mathbf{0.4}}\color{black},\) | \(\color{#e69f00}\boxed{\mathbf{0.4}}\) | ||
\(\leadsto\)
New game with tax applied
| \(\color{#e69f00}B\) | ||||||
| Fish 6h | Fish 8h | |||||
| \(\color{#0072b2}A\) | Fish 6h | \(\color{#0072b2}\boxed{\mathbf{1}}\color{black}, \,\) | \(\color{#e69f00}\boxed{\mathbf{1}}\) | \(\color{#0072b2}\boxed{\mathbf{1}}\color{black},\) | \(\color{#e69f00}\cancel{0.2}\) | |
| Fish 8h | \(\color{#0072b2}\cancel{0.2}, \,\) | \(\color{#e69f00}\boxed{\mathbf{1}}\) | \(\color{#0072b2}\cancel{0.4}\color{black},\) | \(\color{#e69f00}\cancel{0.4}\) | ||
Policy Interventions: Fish Dilemmas \(\leadsto\) Assurance Games
- To “escape” prisoners’ dilemma, we had to change the rules of the game (permanently: a one-time fine would not work)
- Fishers’ Dilemma:
- No institutions: \(a_A, a_B \in \{6\text{ hr}, 8\text{ hr}\}\)
- Institutions (courts or social norms): \(\{\text{Accept}, \text{Reject}\}\)
- Driving “game” (two cars pull up at intersection):
- No institutions: \(a_A, a_B \in \{\text{Stop}, \text{Drive}\}\)
- Institutions (stoplights installed by govt or community agreement): \(a_A, a_B \in \{\text{Obey Light}, \text{Run Light}\}\)
- If policy issue well-modeled by Assurance Game, however, may only need to “nudge” (one-time intervention) \(\leadsto\) new permanent Pareto-optimal equilibrium (Nash \(\implies\) self-enforcing!)
Assurance Game
- Multiple equilibria; the particular outcome we observe is a function of history (path dependency)
- Drive-on-left vs. drive-on-right: Assurance game where neither equilibrium Pareto-dominates other option
- Swedish Dagen H: Nudge from \(o^*_{\textsf{L}} = o(\textsf{L},\textsf{L})\) to \(o^*_{\textsf{R}} = o(\textsf{R},\textsf{R})\)
- Either eq is self-reinforcing! (Unless you… like dying)
- QWERTY vs. DVORAK / Palanpur farmers: Assurance game where observed equilibrium Pareto inferior
| \(\color{#e69f00}B\) | |||
| Early | Late | ||
| \(\color{#0072b2}A\) | Early | \(\color{#0072b2}\boxed{\mathbf{4}}\color{black}{,} \color{#e69f00}\boxed{\mathbf{4}}\) | \(\color{#0072b2}\cancel{0}\color{black}{,} \color{#e69f00}\cancel{3}\) |
| Late | \(\color{#0072b2}\cancel{3}\color{black}{,} \color{#e69f00}\cancel{0}\) | \(\color{#0072b2}\boxed{\mathbf{2}}\color{black}{,} \color{#e69f00}\boxed{\mathbf{2}}\) | |
Invisible Hand Game
- Single, unique Nash equilibrium, and it’s Pareto efficient
- \(\Rightarrow\) Acting in self interest \(\leadsto\) best possible outcome
It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our meal, but from their regard to their own interest (Smith 1776)
| \(\color{#e69f00}B\) | ||||
| Corn | Taro | |||
| \(\color{#0072b2}A\) | Corn | \(\color{#0072b2}\cancel{2}\color{black}{,} \color{#e69f00}\boxed{\mathbf{4}}\) | \(\color{#0072b2}\boxed{\mathbf{4}}\color{black}{,} \color{#e69f00}\cancel{3}\) | |
| Taro | \(\color{#0072b2}\boxed{\mathbf{5}}\color{black}{,} \color{#e69f00}\boxed{\mathbf{5}}\) | \(\color{#0072b2}\cancel{3}\color{black}{,} \color{#e69f00}\cancel{2}\) | ||
- Wealth of Nations SPOILER: The wealth comes from division of labor
and also dumbleydore, and semperus snake, and even poor ron the weasel, who never deserved such a fate
[…I am once again reminding you that] An economic transaction is a solved political problem. Economics gained the title “Queen of the Social Sciences” by choosing solved political problems as its domain
So We’ve Opened the Pandora’s Box of Utility…
- …We need to dive a bit more! To get to
- [Policy Intervention ] Property Rights
- [Policy Intervention ] Yugoslav Nationalization
(called “mergers and acquisitions” when done by MBAs with $3 trillion who can’t be voted out of office)1
Utility Function: Using the Ordering of Numbers to “Encode” the Ordering of Preferences
- Bluey obtains greater utility despite paying the same cost by moving from \(E\) to \(O\)
- \(E\) denotes “Initial Endowment”, \(O\) denotes “Final Outcome”
Two Can Play This Game…
- Bluey obtains greater utility within the same budget by moving from \(E^1\) to \(O^1\)
- Greenie obtains greater utility within the same budget by moving from \(E^2\) to \(O^2\)
The Edgeworth Box
Rotate Greenie’s box 180° and superimpose onto Bluey’s:
Pareto Frontier = Contract(!) Curve
- From initial endowment \(E\), if allowed to trade, “rational” players can reach any allocation along dashed contract curve from \(G\) to \(B\)… (Why not \(A\) or \(H\)?)
- So, what determines which of these points they end up at? (Middle name hint)
First Fundamental Theorem of Welfare Economics
[Antecedents (Coase Conditions)] \(\Rightarrow\) «markets produce Pareto-optimal outcomes»
- Even Jeff finds proof (and corollaries) compelling / convincing / empirically-supported
- (It’s a full-on proof, in the mathematical sense, so doesn’t rly matter what I think; I just mean, imo, important and helpful to think through for class on policy!)
- Ex: Conditional on antecedents [(Coase) minus (perfect competition) plus (thing must be allocated via markets)], \(\uparrow\) Competition \(\leadsto\) More efficient allocations
- Like how Gauss-Markov Assumptions \(\Rightarrow\) OLS is BLUE, yet our whole field (at least, a whole class, DSAN 5300) built on what to do when GM Assumptions don’t hold
- For policy development, helpful to think through
- which cases “break” FFT (more honored in the breach)
- How each violation might be “fixed” through policy
- Our violation: No externalities assumption
- Possible policy “fixes”: property rights, market-socialist nationalization
Payoff from Jeff Pointing at Things Saying “Antecedents!” 500x
Consequent only true if antecedents hold! Otherwise, proper answer becomes “It depends! Let’s see if data can help us find out!” (Will minimum wage hurt/help blah blah blah… “It depends! Tell me the details!”) (Will new condos blah blah blah yimby nimby…) (Will re-allocating welfare budget from \(X\) to \(Y\) blah blah blah… 👀 HW4)
[Economic inequality] is a social law, something in the nature of man. (Pareto 1896)
We’ve got a [thing] made by men, isn’t that something we should be able to change? (Steinbeck 1939)
Coase Antecedents \(\approx\) equalized power!
- Ex 1: Perfect Competition \(\Rightarrow\) (\(\neg\) monopoly) \(\wedge\) (\(\neg\) monopsony) \(\Rightarrow\) everyone’s outside option equally good \(\Rightarrow\) no take-it-or-leave-it coercion possible (try to coerce, I’ll say no and go to one of the other \(\infty\) people offering equally good options)
- Ex 2: No Informational Asymmetries \(\Rightarrow\) Can’t “trick me” into buying defective product (Akerlof (1970), “Market for Lemons”)
So… What Happens When Antecedents Don’t Hold?
\(\neg\)(Coase Antecedents) \(\Rightarrow\) Unequal Power… Puts us in realm of Descriptive Ethics!
[What is] right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power; otherwise, the strong do as they please and the weak suffer what they must. [Thucydides (2013); c. 411 BC] (Think of necessary vs. sufficient conditions!)
Like how Gauss-Markov Assumptions \(\Rightarrow\) OLS is BLUE, yet our whole field (at least, a whole class, DSAN5300) built on what to do when G-M Assumptions don’t hold
For policy development, helpful to think through
- which cases “break” FFT (more honored in the breach)
- How each violation might be “fixed” through policy2
Our violation: No externalities assumption
- Possible policy “fixes”: property rights, Yugoslav nationalization
Policy Intervention : Property Rights
- Rawlsian Rights: Vetos on societal decisions; Constitution can make some inalienable (can’t sell self into slavery), some alienable
- Property rights: alienable. You can gift or sell the rights if you want (veto is over society just, like, taking your property if someone else would be happier with it)
Case : Society decides Right to Clean Air \(\prec\) Right to Smoke \(\Rightarrow\) Start at \(E\)
- \(A\) can pay \(B\) to alienate right (Pay $50/month, can smoke 5 ciggies) \(\leadsto\) \(X\)
- Movement along light blue curve: giving up \(x\) money for \(y\) smoke, equally happy. \(u_A(p)\) identical for \(p\) on curve
- Movement to higher light blue curve () \(\Rightarrow\) greater utility \(u_A' > u_A\)
Case Society decides Smoke \(\prec\) Clean Air \(\Rightarrow\) Repeat for \(E' \leadsto X'\)
Why Exactly Does [Commodifying Rights] Sometimes Enable [“Cancelling Out” Externalities]?
- The key: Forces agent \(i\) to pay a cost for inflicting disutility on agent \(j\)!
- (Here please note: “\(X\) sometimes enables \(Y\)” does not mean \(X\) is a necessary or sufficient condition for \(Y\)! Think of walking into a dark room, trying different light switches until one turns on the overhead light)
- Dear reader, I know what you’re thinking… But Jeff!! This is all so abstract and theoretical!! We’re sick of your ivory-tower musings, get your head out of the clouds and make it relevant to our day-to-day lives, by relating it back to Yugoslavia’s 1965 economic reforms!!
- Don’t worry, I’ve listened to your concerns, and the next slide is here for you 😌
Policy Intervention : “Yugoslav Nationalization”
Last reminder: Externalities \(\Leftrightarrow\) I get reward, others pay costs 🥳
- Steel Mill \(S\) produces amount of steel \(s\) \(\leadsto\) pollution \(x\), total cost \(c_s(s,x)\)
- Fishery \(F\) “produces” amount of fish [\(x \leadsto\)] \(f\), total cost \(c_f(f,x)\)
- \(S\) optimizes (price per steel \(p_s\))
\[ s^*_{\text{Priv}}, x^*_{\text{Priv}} = \argmax_{s,\small\boxed{x}}\left[ p_s s - c_s(s, x) \right] \]
- While \(F\) optimizes (price per fish \(p_f\))
\[ f^*_{\text{Priv}} = \argmax_{f}\left[ p_f f - c_f(f, x) \right] \]
- If [Yugoslavia-style] nationalized, new optimization of joint steel-fish venture is
\[ s^*_{\text{Yugo}}, f^*_{\text{Yugo}}, x^*_{\text{Yugo}} = \argmax_{s, f, x}\left[ p_s s + p_f f - c_s(s, x) - c_f(f, x) \right] \]
- Can prove/“prove” that \(o(s^*_{\text{Yugo}}, f^*_{\text{Yugo}}, x^*_{\text{Yugo}})\) Pareto-dominates \(o(s^*_{\text{Priv}}, x^*_{\text{Priv}}, f^*_{\text{Priv}})\)
- What determines which agents get to ignore externalities? (Dead horse/middle name)
Footnotes
(dw, they use the profits for innovation and thought leadership and def not to buy yachts so they can party with yacht friends on privately-owned Caribbean islands)↩︎
Recall W01: [Earned Income Tax Credits, Emissions Markets, Climate Engineering, Antitrust Legistlation] \(\in \text{Policy Set}\); [Black Panther Community Police Patrols, Blowing Up Oil Pipelines (Malm 2021), Bolshevik Revolution] also \(\in \text{Policy Set}\)↩︎
Social Welfare Functionals
Functionals?
We Live In A Dang Society
\[ W(\mathbf{u}) = W(u_1, \ldots, u_n) \Rightarrow W(\mathbf{u})(x) = W(u_1(x), \ldots, u_n(x)) \]
Alternative SWF Specifications
\[ W(\underbrace{v_1, \ldots, v_n}_{\text{Values}})(x) \overset{\text{e.g.}}{=} \omega_1\underbrace{v_1(x)}_{\text{Privacy}} + \omega_2\underbrace{v_2(x)}_{\mathclap{\text{Public Health}}} \]
\[ W(\underbrace{s_1, \ldots, s_n}_{\text{Stakeholders}})(x) = \omega_1\underbrace{u_{s_1}(x)}_{\text{Teachers}} + \omega_2\underbrace{u_{s_2}(x)}_{\text{Parents}} + \omega_3\underbrace{u_{s_3}(x)}_{\text{Students}} + \omega_4\underbrace{u_{s_4}(x)}_{\mathclap{\text{Community}}} \]
The Conveniently-Left-Out Detail
\[ \mathbb{E}[Y \mid D = 1, A = 1] = \mathbb{E}[Y \mid D = 1, A = 0] \]
Remaining (Challenging) Details
Back to Utilitarian SWF
\[ W(u_1, \ldots, u_n)(x) = \frac{1}{n}u_1(x) + \cdots + \frac{1}{n}u_n(x) \]
The Hard Problem of Utilitarian SWF
Utility \(\rightarrow\) Social Welfare with Externalities
So What’s the Issue?
Now with Scarce Resources
\[ \begin{align*} \max_{m_1,m_2,a_1,a_2}& W(u_1(m_1,a_1),u_2(m_2,a_2)) \\ \text{s.t. }& m_1 + m_2 \leq 14 \\ \phantom{\text{s.t. }} & ~ \, a_1 + a_2 \; \leq 7 \end{align*} \]
(Last slide = last reminder…)
References